Australia’s big doctors’ lobby has warned the Victorian Government about its roadmap out of lockdown.

Victoria has announced plans to reduce COVID-19-related restrictions at set vaccination levels over coming months. 

The modelling underpinning the plan predicts two upcoming peaks in Victoria's outbreak in late October and in December.

The Burnet Institute modelling shows up to 2,500 COVID-19 patients may be hospitalised during the peak.

The Victoria branch of the Australian Medical Association (AMA) says any move to ease restrictions before 80 per cent of people aged over 12 are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 would be “reckless”.

Victorian AMA president Roderick McRae says authorities must be willing to apply the brakes on the plan to prevent the health system from being overwhelmed.

“It is a roadmap, it's literally just that, and it needs to be monitored, perhaps twice a day, just to see how we're going,” he said.

“AMA Victoria are very keen that the finger is very close to hovering over the pause button because nobody wants to go back to the hard lockdown.”

“It's absolutely frightening for anybody to see these sorts of numbers and to be sitting and contemplating thousands of illnesses and thousands of hospital systems.

“All of the hospital systems are strained today.”

The Burnet Institute modelling suggests there would be a “moderate risk” of the health system's capacity being exceeded even if no restrictions are eased. 

It predicts that with the incremental freedoms being granted, a peak in late October will see between 1,200 and 2,500 people in hospital and between 250 and 550 people needing intensive care.

A second peak is forecast to occur in mid-December, with up to 2,202 deaths predicted to occur by the end of December. However, that figure could turn out to be as low as 1,061 if testing is high enough and a 15 per cent reduction in the recent rate of non-household transmission can be achieved. 

Dr McRae says the plan exposes a lot of vulnerable people. 

“We all understand that this is a roadmap of a gentle gradient of opening up and it's supported,” Dr McRae said.

“But it must be monitored and not adhered to for the pure sake of adhering to it.

“Nobody's identified what the trigger is, when there's too many ambulances parked outside the emergency department.

“When the emergency department can't admit a patient into the general ward, when the general ward can't escalate a patient into the intensive care unit, when the intensive care unit can't discharge a patient into the ward so the next intensive care patient can come in.”